Remarkable Round Trip - Euro IOC Mark to Market 2Q26

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Remarkable Round Trip - Euro IOC Mark to Market 2Q26

Global | Integrated Oil EquityJuneResearch28, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:Remarkable Round Trip - Euro IOC Mark to

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETMarket 2Q26

SHEL LN BUY £45.00

Brent crude is now lower than its 27 Feb level, the day before start of TTE FP BUY €93.00

the Iran conflict. A remarkable round trip for the commodity price given BP/ LN HOLD £6.50

material uncertainty over shipping movement via the Strait of Hormuz ENI IM BUY €30.00

remains. Global industry supply resilience has defied consensus once again REP SM BUY €28.00

& demand has corrected to higher price signal. Refining exposure (REP) &

Trading Optimisation (TTE, SHEL) to offset ME disruption will be key for 2Q

results outperformance.

Strait Jacket not as tight as first thought - 2Q26 results. JEFe sector earnings to increase JEFe Coverage and 2Q Reporting Calendar

28% q/q on higher macro. At $29bn, sector earnings are at the highest in the past 13 quarters, Ticker Rating Price Target TSR TU Results

and 83% above 10-year average (Ex. 4 for 15yr quarterly review). Bull/Bear sensitivity ±$15/bbl SHEL LN Buy £ 45.0 54% 7 or 8-July* 30-Jul

BP/ LN Hold £ 6.5 34% w/c 13-July* 04-Aug

Brent vs JEFe & TTF +$1/–$3/mmbtu shows BP, EQNR, GALP, exhibit highest price leverage, TTE FP Buy € 93.0 36% w/c 13-July* 23-Jul

EQNR NO Hold Nkr 380 25% w/c 13-July* 22-Jul

versus TTE, ENI & SHEL appear more defensive in a normalisation scenario (Ex. 14-19). ENI IM Buy € 30.0 44% 29-Jul

REP SM Buy € 28.0 35% w/c 6-July* 23-Jul

OMV AV Hold € 66.0 26% 09-Jul 31-Jul

Exhibit 1 - JEFe 2Q26E and FY26E Net Income vs. Consensus GALP PL Hold € 20.0 12% 13-Jul 27-Jul

ARAMCO AB Buy € 35.0 37% 04-Aug

Results 2Q26E NI FY26 . NESTE FH Buy € 33.0 25% 24-Jul