Spotify Technology S.A. "Previewing the Investor Day" (Buy) Levi

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Spotify Technology S.A. "Previewing the Investor Day" (Buy) Levi

Global Research

18 May 2026ab

Spotify Technology S.A. Equities

United StatesPreviewing the Investor Day

Internet Services

12-month rating Buy

Positive catalyst ahead

At the upcoming investor day on May 21, we expect Spotify to update mid & long- 12m price target US$735.00

term financial targets, outline strategic priorities and provide a path for further

monetization opportunities. Shares have remained under pressure (down 20%+

Price (18 May 2026) US$445.01

YTD) driven by concerns around competitive risks and elevated operating costs amid

higher AI investments. We expect the event to reinforce management's focus on RIC: SPOT.N BBG: SPOT US

delivering differentiated products and features, supporting sustained double-digit

Trading data and key metrics

revenue growth and further operating leverage. We also expect mgmt. to highlight new

52-wk range US$775.90-412.75

AI-driven tools (personalization, prompted playlists, SongDNA, etc) while signaling

additional capabilities in development, particularly as negotiations with the labels to Market cap. US$93.1b

expand AI rights remain ongoing. Shares o/s 209m (COM)

Free float 52%

Updating long-term growth and margin expansion Avg. daily volume ('000) 440

We believe Spotify's expanding product portfolio, enhanced free tier and AI-driven Avg. daily value (m) US$212.2

features support its prior ~1B+ MAU target (UBSe ~10% CAGR to ~1B in '28). Common s/h equity (12/26E) €9.83b

This should expand the top of the funnel and drive conversion to premium P/BV (12/26E) 8.0x

subscriptions (UBSe 8% CAGR to 367M in '28 vs. Street at 7%). Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) NM

We expect Spotify to guide to mid-teens revenue CAGR over the medium term (vs. EPS (UBS, diluted) (EUR)