SPOT: Raising Estimates & Price Target - 2026 Investor Day - Spot-On

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SPOT: Raising Estimates & Price Target - 2026 Investor Day - Spot-On

May 26, 2026

Higher opex offset by monetization potential: Following investor concern around Spotify's 1Q'26 commentary

implying ~18% y/y FX-neutral opex growth ex. social, mgmt's LT framework points to a more moderate, but still

elevated, ~13% CAGR thru 2030. We view elevated R&D, compute, and marketing as justified given increasing

investment in personalized fan experiences support faster revenue growth & sustained operating leverage.

New products: Spotify announced a broad suite of products centered on deepening personalization, increasing

engagement frequency, and strengthening consumer affinity with the platform. While management provided limited

detail around pricing and launch timing, the direction of travel reinforces our confidence in Spotify’s ability to expand

monetization beyond the core Premium subscription:

●AI music "creation" tools with Universal Music: Spotify previewed AI-powered remix & cover functionality

as a paid add-on, aligned with UMG’s “walled garden” approach to licensed content creation & distribution.

The product fits Spotify’s broader strategy of offering differentiated, platform-native experiences that deepen

personalization. Economics described as “mildly neutral to accretive,” with Premium users expected to receive

first access. We ultimately envision a limited ad-supported version serving as part of the conversion funnel.

●Reserved w/ Live Nation: Launching in the US this summer, Reserved gives Premium users early access to hold

and purchase concert 2 tickets ahead of public sales based on listener engagement signals. The exclusive multi-

year partnership strengthens Spotify’s value proposition for high-intent fans while helping mitigate bot-driven

ticket inflation.