AprQ EPS Preview: Buyers Into Print

研报英文原文证据摘录

AprQ EPS Preview: Buyers Into Print

ADI AprQ EPS Preview: Positive Set-Up, Buyers Into

Print

Figure 1: EVR ISI ADI AprQ Earnings "Set-Up Guide"

16 Indicators for ADI Earnings Setup

EVR ISI Commentary Set-up

2Q26 Outlook / 3Q26 Consensus

ADI avg/median 2Q guide of 5% over past 22 quarters is 2% sub-seasonal implying downside risk to 3%

Historical 2Q Rev Guidance -1

QQ vs current 10yr seasonality of +3%

Average guide for the past 8 consecutive quarters have been on avg 3% above seasonality (median +2%

Past 8 Quarters Guide +1

above) Over the past 3 quarters, ADI’s guide vs seasonality has improved from +2% to +3% to +8%.

Sell Side OctQ Consensus Street +3% QQ vs 10yr Seasonality of +2% QQ +1

Valuation

NTM P/E ADI NTM P/E is 34x and rel to SPX is 1.6x, a 61% and 41% premium to 10-yr median -1

Investor Sentiment

1-Week Stock Performance ADI and SPX Flat over the past week 0

3-Month Stock Performance ADI+ 20% vs SPX +7% since 4Q25 Earnings -1

6-Month Stock Performance ADI +80% vs SPX +11% -2

Investor Sentiment Investors underweight analog/MCUs. Strong sentiment on ADI 0

Supply Chain Reads

EMS inventories restocking, Distr inventory above trendline but increasing, Auto Tier-1/OEM

Supply Chain Inventories +1

inventories below normal

Channel Checks Lead times stretching, several SKUs on allocation at all vendors, 5%-80% price hikes by 16 vendors +1

ADI Industry Feedback Price hikes a tailwind. Mixed customer feedback on ADI 0

Momentum Indicators

Revs vs Trendline We model ADI revs troughed in 1Q24 +1

NTM EPS We expect NTM EPS estimates to increase post-earnings +1

YY Revs ADI YY revs troughed in 1Q24…but guide could imply YY de-cel -1

FCF/Shr ADI TTM FCF/Shr troughed in 2Q24 +1

DOI We believe ADI DOI peaked in 1Q24 +1

Total 16 Indicators Suggest Positive Setup for ADI 2