The China Report: Unpacking China-Driven Share Shifts In Broad-Based Semis

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The China Report: Unpacking China-Driven Share Shifts In Broad-Based Semis

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

June 29, 2026

■Semiconductors The China Report: Unpacking China-Driven

Share Shifts In Broad-Based Semis

Joshua Buchalter, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1303

We analyzed 10 years of third-party data to unpack China-domiciled firm share gains in broad-

joshua.buchalter@tdsecurities.com

based semis. Our analysis revisits findings from our trailing edge deep dive, showing a) all

Sam Reiff, CFA end markets have seen some share erosion, but consumer is most penetrated, and b) discretes

312 577 2217 face higher share loss than ICs. Auto/industrial exposure and feature integration is key to

sam.reiff@tdsecurities.com

weathering China competition.

Lannie Trieu, CFA

415 646 7217 Our Thesis In the last five years, Chinese firms have spent meaningfully on semiconductor

lannie.trieu@tdsecurities.com capital equipment with the goal of building self-sufficient domestic capacity. While China is

Ethan Potasnick banned from procuring equipment used in leading edge manufacturing, the impact on the

646 562 1425 mature-node broad-based semis market is non-trivial, with China firms taking ~1.3% of total

ethan.potasnick@tdsecurities.com MCU/analog/discrete revenue share per year since C2020.

Sean O'Loughlin, CFA Impacts to product categories and end markets is widely dispersed: China's 16% market share

646 562 1327 in C2025 is heavily skewed towards discretes/power discretes and in consumer-oriented

sean.oloughlin@tdsecurities.com markets. We expect China share gains to remain a manageable, but persistent headwind to

western analog/MCU players, even for auto and industrial markets. Our analysis indicates the

headwind is a slower bleed than investors may fear.