VGP Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

VGP Model Update

Vanessa M Guy AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-4521 20 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

vanessa.guy@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

VGP develops and owns high-end logistics real estate and

ancillary offices for its own account and for its VGP European

Logistics joint ventures. The company operates a fully

integrated business model combining unique expertise as a

developer, asset manager and owner of high-quality logistics

assets throughout Europe. Cash recycling is a key advantage of

the JV structure as completed developments are typically

transferred at market value to the JV, releasing cash to VGP that

is then used to buy 50% of equity needed for the JV purchase,

YTD 1m 3m 12m with the balance recycled into the next project. We are

Abs -17.7% -15.0% -24.6% -1.6% Underweight on VGP given valuation and Logistic peers

Company Data offering higher upside and better visibility.

Shares O/S (mn) 30 Valuation

52-week range (€) 111.20-77.30

Market cap ($ mn) 2,823.49 Our price target for VGP is based on our total returns-based

Exchange rate 0.86 European Valuation Model, which takes into account whether a

Free float (%) 44.2% company creates or destroys value. We argue that companies

3M ADV (mn) 0.02

3M ADV ($ mn) 2.3 that have a positive spread between returns and their weighted

Volatility (90 Day) 38 average cost of capital (WACC) should trade at a premium to

Index - NNAV, whereas those with a negative spread should be priced

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 5|2|2

below NNAV. We apply this spread to the invested capital,

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) discount back and add/subtract to our NNAV forecast to derive

€ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E our price target.

Financial Estimates

Revenue 223 303 330 357

Adj.