Dino Polska "Still Not Out of the Woods; stay Neutral post 1Q" (Neutral) Potyra

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dino Polska "Still Not Out of the Woods; stay Neutral post 1Q" (Neutral) Potyra

Global Research

18 May 2026ab

Dino Polska Equities

PolandStill Not Out of the Woods; stay Neutral post 1Q

Food Retailers & Wholesalers

12-month rating Neutral

Staying Neutral post 1Q; Low visibility persists

We remain Neutral on Dino Polska with an unchanged PLN 36 price target. Despite the 12m price target PLN36.00

stronger-than-expected 1Q, we are not convinced that a recovery is taking shape and

are waiting on more visibility on the medium-term LFLs and margin trajectory.

Price (15 May 2026) PLN32.08

Considering the above, we make only minor changes to estimates, with EPS down ~1%

for 26-28E. We see the risk-reward to be balanced, with upside risks related to growing RIC: DNP.WA BBG: DNP PW

food inflation (see our analysis of the impact of food inflation on grocers here) and

Trading data and key metrics

downside risks related to increased sector competition and Dino's strategy execution.

52-wk range PLN55.30-28.50

2Q26 likely the bottom but higher food inflation needed to improve outlook Market cap. PLN31.5b/US$8.61b

Shares o/s 980m (ORD)

The positive surprise in 1Q (margins proving more resilient than anticipated, refer to our

Free float 49%

commentary here) is unlikely to extend into 2Q. We anticipate LFL growth to decelerate

sequentially to 2%, driven by deeper basket deflation and a negative calendar impact. Avg. daily volume ('000) 4,192

Additionally, margin pressures are expected to intensify due to operational deleveraging Avg. daily value (m) PLN146.5

and rising wage costs following the April wage increases (approximately PLN 50m per Common s/h equity (12/26E) PLN10.3b

quarter or c0.5% of sales on UBSe). Overall, we forecast a 75bps decline in EBITDA P/BV (12/26E) 3.0x

margin.