Dino Rally unjustified by fundamentals - we stay UW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dino Rally unjustified by fundamentals - we stay UW

J P M O R G A N CEEMEA Equity Research

18 May 2026

Dino Underweight

DNP.WA, DNP PW

Rally unjustified by fundamentals - we stay UW Price (15 May 26):zl31.97

Price Target (Dec-27):zl31.00

We raise Dino's FY26 EPS forecast by 1% reflecting better than expected CEEMEA Consumer

ACprofitability in 1Q26. However, we leave our Dec-27 PT of PLN 31/share and UW Elena Jouronova, CFA

rating unchanged as we find the set-up into 2Q26 challenging (wage increase, (971) 4561-2010

negative calendar effect, ongoing deflation in fresh products). In our opinion, 1Q26 elena.jouronova@jpmorgan.com

results showcase that Dino is containing the re investment of improved purchasing Anastasia Tikhonova

conditions to offset opex pressure - a strategy that tends to lead to subdued LFLs (44-20) 3493-8007

when competition is more price aggressive. Whilst the LfL in 1Q26 was supported anastasia.tikhonova@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

by the positive effect of Easter (1.5ppts as per management), this becomes a

headwind in 2Q26 and with no sign of food inflation picking up, sets the scene for

an unimpressive print. Jeronimo Martins (OW, AFL, covered by Borja Olcese) Key Changes (FYE Dec)

provides a more attractive risk-reward, trading at a 17-24% discount to Dino on Prev Cur Δ

2026-27E P/E despite its leading pricing and sound operational execution. Adj. EPS - 26E (zl) 1.74 1.76 0.8%

Adj. EPS - 27E (zl) 1.90 1.99 4.8%

• Volume growth is in focus, while deflation is deepening further in April. Adj. EBITDA - 26E (zl mn) 2,826 2,850 0.8%

We expect Dino’s LfL trajectory to soften in 2Q26 as the late-March Easter

Style Exposure calendar benefit that supported 1Q26 (estimated at 1.5%) reverses,