KEY: Controlling the controllables, plain and simple

研报英文原文证据摘录

KEY: Controlling the controllables, plain and simple

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Maurice Choy, CFA, CA, CPA (Analyst)

(604) 257-7632, maurice.choy@rbccm.com

Robert Kwan, CFA (Head of Global Power, Utilities &

Infrastructure Research)

(604) 257-7611, robert.kwan@rbccm.com

Greg Andrais, CFA (Senior Associate)

(604) 257-7556, greg.andrais@rbccm.com

May 14, 2026

Keyera Corp. OutperformRESEARCH Controlling the controllables, plain and simple TSX: KEY; CAD 55.11

Our view: While much of the upcoming investor discussions will likely Price Target CAD 60.00 ↑ 55.00

center on the ongoing Competition Tribunal process, we see tailwinds that Scenario Analysis*

can drive the stock meaningfully higher over the coming months/quarters.

These include potential for the stand-alone Marketing business to perform DownsideScenario CurrentPrice TargetPrice ScenarioUpside

better than Keyera's newly-released 2026 guidance, favourable updates on

its synergies from the now-completed acquisition, a new fee-based EBITDA 38.0027% 55.11 60.0013% 74.0038%

guidance for the combined business that maintains Keyera as one of theEQUITY *Implied Total Returns

fastest growing Canadian Midstream companies, and progress on its major Key Statistics

development projects. Overall, we remain constructive on Keyera's stock. Shares O/S (MM): 282.2 Market Cap (MM): 15,550

Dividend: 2.16 Yield: 3.9%

Key points: Float (MM): 282.2 Avg. Daily Volume: 2,498,134

Marketing: Room to outperform. While the newly introduced $210-250 RBC Estimates million stand-alone Marketing guidance for 2026 was slightly lower than FY Dec 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

our forecast heading into the quarter, we think that the company's DCF/share 3.36 3.21 3.24 4.31

underlying assumptions may be rather conservative, such that there is a Prev.