KEY: Success is when preparation and opportunity meet

研报英文原文证据摘录

KEY: Success is when preparation and opportunity meet

expected. However, success is when preparation and opportunity meet; Prev. 1,589.0 2,000.0

DPS 2.08 2.16 2.23 2.29 in this case, Keyera was well-prepared by being the co-owner and operator Div Yield 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0%

of KAPS, and the ability to take advantage of the opportunity presented

itself, however untimely. Bundle these with a strong capital allocation DCF/share Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2025 0.83A 0.69A 0.79A 0.90A framework, financial implications that are net neutral to slightly positive, 2026 0.44A 0.60E 1.14E 1.06E

and a supportive stock valuation (with room to improve on a relative basis), Prev. 0.70E 1.06E 1.04E

we can see how the market chose to look past the timing, and favourably EBITDA

focus instead on how Keyera's outlook has improved post-deal. 2025 298.0A 252.0A 281.0A 301.0A

2026 203.0A 327.0E 562.0E 545.0E

Prev. 350.0E 518.0E 518.0E A stronger near-term growth trajectory, with a slightly elevated leverage.

Our analysis in Exhibit 1 highlights how the transaction can deliver All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.

around 1-2% DCF/share accretion in the near-term, and improves both the Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

2025-2027 and 2027-2029 fee-based EBITDA/share CAGRs (even though

Keyera reaffirmed its 7-8% 2027-2029 CAGR). Meanwhile, pro forma the

deal, funding arrangements, and the higher capex for 2026, we estimate

that the 2026 debt/EBITDA rises by about 0.3x, with the metric now

declining within its 2.5-3.0x target range by 2028 (versus by the end of

2027). That said, Marketing outperformance and incremental synergies

(likely to be announced later this year) can accelerate this deleveraging.

We like the long-term strategic benefits of this deal.