KPTI: 1Q26: Potential For MF Use Through NCCN, and Rationale in EC, Support Fundamental Upside, In Our View

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KPTI: 1Q26: Potential For MF Use Through NCCN, and Rationale in EC, Support Fundamental Upside, In Our View

ide for '26 was 2026 (1.02)A (1.11)E (0.81)E (0.83)E

unchanged at $115M-$130M, bracketing our $120M estimate; core opex Prev. (0.98)E (0.56)E (0.63)E (0.77)E

guide of $230M-$245M was higher than our estimates. Revenue

2025 30.0A 37.9A 44.0A 34.1A

Upcoming ASCO data could provide more color on initial MF topline; 2026 35.1A 34.7E 34.6E 34.6E Prev. 28.2E 37.3E 37.3E 37.3E expectations for NCCN inclusion starting as early as this year. KPTI will

present their ph.III seli MF data as a late-breaker at ASCO next month, and Revenue: $ in millions

while there were limited hints as to what new analyses or follow-ups will AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorUSD unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

be included, we believe it is likely to showcase the net positive top-line

data previously reported and potentially generate enthusiasm around its

potential. Mgmt outlined potential expectations that the seli ph.III data

would be on the radar of the NCCN MF subcommittee and that there

could be incorporation into guidelines even as early as this year; we believe

inclusion should eventually happen given precedents, and esp given our

KOL feedback suggesting the same, even if OS might need to mature a bit

further. Overall though, we continue to believe that the spleen benefits and

potential OS trends should help with inclusion, and should drive eventual

uptake. Preparations for an sNDA are ongoing and management expects

to engage with regulators in next couple of quarters with a comprehensive

dataset in hand.

EC ph.III data expected mid-year; prior data had been supportive and

mgmt sounds confident in study size assumptions. Enrollment has been