RGEN: Diverse Set of Growth Drivers in a Strengthening Bioprocessing Market; Resume Coverage at Outperform

研报英文原文证据摘录

RGEN: Diverse Set of Growth Drivers in a Strengthening Bioprocessing Market; Resume Coverage at Outperform

500B in announced reshoring 2025 0.39A 0.37A 0.46A 0.49A

investments from pharma companies. 2026 0.48A 0.44E 0.46E 0.61E

All values in USD unless otherwise noted.

Growth drivers more diverse than investors appreciate. Investors heavily Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

focus on historical growth drivers of Repligen -- its alternating tangential

flow filtration (ATF) and new modalities -- but the company has several

other growth drivers. Repligen should benefit from mix shift towards

commercial products (40%+ of sales mix today vs 55%+ for peers),

biosimilars, product replacement cycles (e.g., SoloVPE Plus), and a strategy

reboot in China (OEM relationship announced on Q1 call).

We believe concerns around ATF competition are overblown, and instead

see competitive interest as further market validation. We see new

modalities growth concerns as manageable. Headwinds from Sarepta's

Elevidys -- the key driver of gene therapy customer pressure, in our view --

should lap in 2027, and we believe AAV therapies will only account for ~5%

of Repligen's 2026 sales, down sharply from ~12% in 2024.

Operating margin expansion plans more linear than prior. While

Repligen continues to target ~30% adj EBITDA margins by 2030 (up

from ~19% in 2025), the company recently established a transformation

office tasked with ensuring that progress towards this target is more

linear than previously forecasted. Manufacturing footprint optimization

and enhancing/culling unprofitable product lines are key focus areas,

underscored by the divestiture of Polymem.

Price target appropriate for premium growth. Our $160 price target is