AGTF: The Story Remains the Same

研报英文原文证据摘录

AGTF: The Story Remains the Same

urrent levels and the valuation discount should narrow over time as AGT Prev. (0.23) 1.06 1.21

executes on its growth strategy. P/E NM NM 16.3x 14.4x

• Looking through near-term noise with the IPO story still on track. While Revenue Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 consolidated revenues declined -34.8% YoY in Q1/26 on the back of 2025 860.2A 623.6A 654.2A 824.3A

short-term volume impacts (due mainly to war in the Middle East with 2026 560.7A 526.6E 674.2E 899.9E

food security revenues declining -50.5%) alongside lower commodity Prev. 688.1E 592.4E 668.7E 879.9E

prices, adjusted EBITDA was largely stable (-2.2%) despite absorbing EBITDA, Adj

2025 40.0A 44.5A 49.6A 56.2A an $8MM shortfall, which we believe reflects the improved resilience 2026 39.1A 46.3E 55.0E 63.1E

and margin discipline of the business today. Acknowledging still fluid Prev. 38.4E 48.4E 54.5E 64.0E

dynamics in the Middle East, management expects to recover the $8MM

EBITDA shortfall as the year progresses (regardless of whether the AllPricedvaluesas ofin priorCAD unlesstradingotherwiseday's marketnoted.close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

conflict is resolved), indicating that: (i) operations in the Middle East

normalized in Q2/26 as the company utilizes multimodal transportation

to bypass the Straight of Hormuz; (ii) Q1/26 was impacted by the timing

of the annual one-week maintenance shutdown at its Türkiye facility

(which occurred in Q2/25 last year); (iii) weather headwinds in South

Africa have resolved with a strong sales pipeline supporting a recovery

to prior year levels in H2/26; and (iv) incremental freight charges are

borne by customers. In addition, management sees potential upside to

its outlook over the next 18-24 months in the current geopolitical and