Q1/26 First Look: Strong Execution on Controllables; Exogenous Factors Weighing

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q1/26 First Look: Strong Execution on Controllables; Exogenous Factors Weighing

Consumer Staples

AGT Food and Ingredients

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA QUICK TAKE: EARNINGS UPDATE

May 12, 2026

Price: C$15.38 (05/12/2026) Q1/26 First Look: Strong Execution on

Price Target: C$21.00 Controllables; Exogenous Factors Weighing

HOLD (2)

ESG SCORE: 77/100

Derek J. Lessard^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

514 289 0384

In our view, AGTF’s global supply chain continues to face operational challenges as a result

derek.lessard@tdsecurities.com

of the Middle Eastern conflict. While ~20% y/y EBITDA growth (excluding exogenous impacts)

Evan Frantzeskos, CFA^ points to solid underlying execution, we expect these headwinds to constrain the near-term

514 985 2191 outlook until conditions normalize.

evan.frantzeskos@tdsecurities.com

Ryan Neal^ Impact: NEUTRAL

416 308 2213

AGTF reported Q1/26 Adjusted EBITDA of $39.1mm, which was 3% above cons. ($38.1mm)ryan.neal2@tdsecurities.com

and in line with TD Cowen (down 2% y/y). Management highlighted three primary headwinds

Key Data that collectively reduced quarterly EBITDA by roughly $10mm:

Symbol TSX: AGTF-T

■Food security delays ($5.0mm EBITDA impact in VAP): A 13% decline in total volumes drove

Market Cap C$1.0B

softer food security (VAP) and PF&I sales. Management quantified the EBITDA impact as ~

General: Insiders own ~68% of outstanding shares. Co-

founders have significant stake in the company (i.e., ~10% of $5.0mm.

outstanding shares).

■Weather-related challenges (~$2.8mm EBITDA impact in PF&I): Heavy rainfall disrupted

planting in South Africa.

■Ramadan timing (~$1.9mm EBITDA impact in PF&I): Türkiye operations experienced the

usual one-week Ramadan shutdown in late March (vs. Q2 in 2025), weighing on sales. We

expect this to reverse in Q2.