BGF Retail: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

BGF Retail: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– BGF Retail- BGF(282330.KS)Retail (282330.KS)

Few catalysts to play in near term; EW

PRICE TARGET W144,000 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

Base-case, residual income model. Key assumptions include: a cost of equity of 8.8% (risk-free ▪Although BGF has seen ongoing

rate of 4.0%, equity risk premium of 6.0% and beta of 0.80) with a terminal growth rate of consolidation in the CVS industry, slow top-

3%. line growth (LSD% YoY) has become a key

challenge. W162,889 ▪A stabilizing cost cycle could relieveConsensus Price Target Distribution W132,000.00 W198,000.00 margin pressure. CVS OPM could be more MS PT

influenced by sales growth in the comingSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

quarters.

▪P/E valuation looks relatively

undemanding at a 10x P/E on our NTM EPS

RISK REWARD CHART estimates, but amid slow CVS channel

growth, it will likely be difficult for valuation

to expand near term.

KRW

would turn more constructive on the W165,000W165,000(+21.15%)W165,000(+21.15%)(+21.15%) ▪We

name, if the company becomes more

160000 shareholder-friendly with a raising payout

ratio or if there's rising probability of a

W144,000W144,000(+5.73%)W144,000(+5.73%)(+5.73%)

W136,200W136,200W136,200 tobacco tax hike.

Consensus Rating Distribution

W110,000W110,000(-19.24%)W110,000(-19.24%)(-19.24%)

80000 90% Overweight

10% Equal-weight

40000 0% Underweight

MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE W165,000 BASE CASE W144,000 BEAR CASE W110,000

12x bull-case NTM EPS 11x base-case NTM EPS 9x bear-case NTM EPS