JAC Recruitment: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

JAC Recruitment: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – JAC Recruitment (2124.T)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

12 May 2026 -

# of domestic recruiting consultant 1,722 2,080 2,472 2,885 Q1 2026 JAC Recruitment Co Ltd Earnings Release

18 May 2026

Domestic recruiting unit price 10 Aug 2026 - 2,988 3,137 3,216 3,280 Q2 2026 JAC Recruitment Co Ltd Earnings Release (JPY1,000) 14 Aug 2026

OP margin (%) 25.3 26.1 27.0 28.4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

We think the market does not fully recognize the RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

company's strong growth prospects over the Strength in domestic recruiting market

longer term. Accordingly, we consider earnings Consultant usage accelerates Sales / 53.2

trends a potential driver for the share price. Consultant productivity improves further Revenue Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

(¥, bn) consensus data for this metric RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Weakening in domestic recruiting market

Consultant usage slows

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 0-10% China and India Consultant productivity wanes EBITDA 14

0-10% UK Clients increasingly shift to direct recruiting (¥, bn) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

80-90% Japan consensus data for this metric

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 70.4% 63.1

EPS

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research (¥) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

MS ALPHA MODELS consensus data for this metric

1/5 3 Month Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is