Semiconductor Capital Equipment: 2Q'26 WFE update, memory mismatch unresolved, LAM up to OW, AMAT down to EW

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Semiconductor Capital Equipment: 2Q'26 WFE update, memory mismatch unresolved, LAM up to OW, AMAT down to EW

Idea

May 18, 2026 06:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMSemiconductor Capital Equipment | North America Shane Brett

Equity Analyst

2Q'26 WFE update, memory Shane.Brett@morganstanley.comJoseph Moore +1 212 761-1022

Joseph.Moore@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-7516

mismatch unresolved, LAM up Mason Wayne

Research Associate

Mason.Wayne@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6012

to OW, AMAT down to EW Ella Tulchinsky

Ella.Tulchinsky@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2222

We revise up our 2026/27 WFE market forecast to +27%/+28% Nicole Kozhukhov

and introduce 2028 (+13%). We’re positive about NAND and ResearchNicole.Kozhukhov@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-1636

Intel into 2027. MKSI to Top Pick.

Semiconductor Capital Equipment

What's Changed? We revise up our 2026 forecast from $143bn (+23% y/y) to North America

Industry View In-Line

$149bn (+27%) and our 2027 forecast comes up from $182bn (+27%) to $191bn

What’s Changed

(+28%). For 2026, we revise up DRAM/foundry logic by $3bn/$2bn, while for 2027

Lam Research Corp (LRCX.O) From To

we revise up DRAM/NAND by $5bn/$4bn. We introduce our 2028 WFE forecast of Rating Equal-weight Overweight

$215bn (+13% y/y). We model 18% growth in foundry logic and 6% growth in Price Target $293.00 $331.00

memory. Our foundry logic growth forecast is led by a broadening of spenders,

MKS Inc. (MKSI.O) From To

while in memory we would look to adjust our estimates as we gain greater visibility Price Target $354.00 $374.00

into project scale. Overall, we believe the WFE cycle has longevity, with memory Top Pick AMAT.O MKSI.O

clean room availability constraining some near-term upside while extending the Applied Materials Inc.

(AMAT.O) From To