Aluminium Dashboard Aluminium prices +21% YTD – inventories rolling over from March peak as Middle East disruptions begin to bite

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Aluminium Dashboard Aluminium prices +21% YTD – inventories rolling over from March peak as Middle East disruptions begin to bite

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

18 May 2026

Aluminium Dashboard

Aluminium prices +21% YTD – inventories rolling

over from March peak as Middle East disruptions

begin to bite

Key takeaways: (1) Global aluminium inventory has built materially through Australia

2026, up 46% YTD (+540kt) to ~1.7Mt, and ~750kt above 2025 levels; that said,

Head of Australia Metals & Mining

there has been a gradual decline from the March 2026 peak as Middle East supply

disruptions begin to bite. (2) 1Q26 global demand fell ~2% YoY, with China flat Lyndon Fagan AC

and RoW -4% YoY; JPM Commodities Team recently trimmed full-year demand (61-2) 9003-8648

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

growth to +1.4% YoY as higher prices suppress end-use consumption. China J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

production is running at the ~45Mtpa cap. (3) China is pulling in bauxite at Metals & Mining

record rates, with imports surging 23% YTD, alumina net imports have also

Bill Peterson

swung positive, and primary metal imports at a ~3Mtpa run-rate – consistent with

(1-415) 315-6766

smelters running flat out at the 45Mt cap and domestic alumina supply lagging bill.peterson@jpmchase.com

aluminium production. Aluminium prices are up 21% YTD, materially J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

outperforming copper (+8%), driven by confirmed damage at EGA's Al Taweelah Patrick Jones

and Alba smelters; JPM Commodities Research forecasts a 1.9Mmt primary (44-20) 7742-5964

deficit in 2026, the largest relative to market size since 2000. The forward curve patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

is firmly in backwardation, with the market expecting price tension to ease as J.P. Morgan Securities plc