Ryanair Uncertain outlook and consensus downgrades likely to weigh on shares. However, no big surprises versus recent softer commentary

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Ryanair Uncertain outlook and consensus downgrades likely to weigh on shares. However, no big surprises versus recent softer commentary

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

18 May 2026

Ryanair

Uncertain outlook and consensus downgrades likely to Overweight

weigh on shares. However, no big surprises versus RYA.I, RYA ID

recent softer commentary Price (15 May 26):€22.01

Price Target (Dec-27):€35.00

Our Take: Q4 beat but slightly weaker fares for summer and consensus European Transport & Logistics

ACdowngrades are likely to weigh on the shares today. However, we would also Harry J Gowers

caveat there is not much new in the release today versus CEO MOL’s recent softer (44-20) 7134-7522

commentary in the press (and we see the outlook as more aligned with buy-side harry.gowers@jpmorgan.com

expectations). Ryanair reported a Q4 net income loss of -€396m, better versus J.P. Morgan Securities plc

company consensus of -€457m, driven by strong fares at +9% (JPMe +5%). Alexia Dogani

Forward-looking commentary points to an uncertain outlook due to the conflict in (44-20) 3493-3791

alexia.dogani@jpmorgan.com

the Middle East, with a shorter booking window versus prior year and pricing J.P. Morgan Securities plc

softening in recent weeks. However, pricing also remains relatively robust given

Bhavpreet S Batra

the passenger uncertainty, with Q1 fares worse than we expected trending down (91-22) 6157-5046

mid single digit % (JPMe +3%), although Q2 is slightly better than we expected bhavpreet.batra@jpmorgan.com

at trending broadly flat (JPMe -1%). No explicit fuel guidance has been given for J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

Mar-27E given current volatility, but Ryanair expects total unit costs at current fuel Shikha Khurana

rates to be up mid single digit % (in line with JPMe +5%).