RYANAIR : Corporate Contact: Key Takeaways

研报英文原文证据摘录

RYANAIR : Corporate Contact: Key Takeaways

EQUITIES

TRANSPORT & INFRA.

RYANAIR OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR26.3  TARGET PRICE EUR32 (UPSIDE 22%)

RYANAIR ADR OUTPERFORMPRICE* USD62.7  TARGET PRICE USD78 (UPSIDE 24%)

FLASH NOTE

Corporate Contact: Key Takeaways

23 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 09:37* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

James Hollins BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8438 james.hollins@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

We have spoken to Ryanair, which is due to report its Q127 results on 20 July 2026, and highlight there has been no

change to full-year guidance. As a result of the trends for Q127, we do not expect a material shift in consensus net

income for the quarter or FY27.

BNPP View:

Our key conclusions from the call are as follows:

Trading is in line with guidance. Ryanair had guided (at FY26) to Q127 fares down around mid-single digit % y/y,

impacted by the earlier Easter and some consumer hesitancy on bookings related to issues such as jet fuel shortages.

We believe that fares down mid-single digit % is around where the group is seeing trading through the quarter, with a

later booking profile, but relatively strong late demand coming through.

On the core summer (Q227) fares, guidance is for average fares around flat y/y, and, again, this feels like a fair reflection

of the booking profile and expectations for the summer at this stage. Ryanair appears to be on track to deliver capacity

(and passenger) growth in H127 of around 5-6%, and then around 1-2% in the winter (H227).

Consensus fuel costs (EUR1.66bn) for Q127 looks sensible for now, with the recent drop in fuel more likely to benefit

the unhedged portion from Q227. Elsewhere, we would expect the group to print slightly below a mid-single digit %