doValue (1K) | Buy | coeo de-risks the story, legacy needs more

研报英文原文证据摘录

doValue (1K) | Buy | coeo de-risks the story, legacy needs more

F yield >20%. Net profit adj (m) 52.5 77.2 79.3

Key findings Net financial debt (m) 667.2 593.9 523.2

FCF (m) 114.9 113.3 125.5

▪Q1 results were in line with our estimates and management's internal phasing. Q1 EPS adj. and ful. dil. 0.28 0.41 0.42

is structurally the smallest quarter for doValue (15-20% of FY EBITDA). Consensus EPS 0.29 0.36 0.43

▪coeo seems to be running c.30% ahead of the plan, which should offset the Net dividend 0.17 0.24 0.00

doValue standalone softness. Which lead the company to reiterate the EUR300m FY to 31/12 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

pro-forma EBITDA combined target. P/E adj and ful. dil. 7.9 5.4 5.2

EV/EBITDA 5.1 4.3 4.0

▪Management has pushed back the new plan to October to fully integrate coeo EV/EBIT 8.0 6.3 5.8

into the 2026-29 strategic framework. Right call, in our view. FCF yield 22.6% 25.1% 28.0%

Dividend yield 7.5% 11.1% 0.0%

Trimming estimates to reflect later coeo closing and softer legacy ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA 2.6 2.1 1.8

▪We revise our estimates to reflect: coeo consolidation from 17 April 2026 (vs end- Gearing 189.6% 146.7% 112.2%

January in our prior model), implying c.3 months less contribution in 2026 and a ROIC 10.2% 13.8% 14.1%

more cautious view on legacy Q1 dynamics in Italy and Greece. EV/IC 1.3 1.3 1.2

▪Our pro-forma FY 2026E view is now EUR799m revenues and EUR293m EBITDA

(vs. guidance of EUR800m and EUR300m) on a 12-month-full-coeo basis, vs

reported EUR734m and EUR273m, the difference being the lost contribution from

January-mid-April.

Tommaso Nieddu

Our estimates sit slightly below company’s guidance as we prefer to have more Equity Research Analyst

visibility on the actual EBITDA numbers of coeo when consolidated to be able to +39 02 85 50 72 18