doValue (AO) | Buy | Q1 first take: as expected on legacy, coeo running hot

研报英文原文证据摘录

doValue (AO) | Buy | Q1 first take: as expected on legacy, coeo running hot

doValue Buy | Target Price: EUR3.70

Company description Management

doValue is the market leader in NPLs in southern Europe (Italy, Spain, and Manuela Franchi,CEO

Greece) with a GBV of EUR130bn at end-2024. The business in Italy (c.EUR90bn Davide Soffietti,CFO

GBV) is the result of the combination between the NPL workout subsidiary of

Key shareholdersUniCredit (sold in 2015) with Italfondiario (acquired in 2016) and the recent Free float 48.78%

acquisition of Gardant (EUR22bn), while the business in Iberia (EUR11bn), Greece FIG Buyer 22.61%

(EUR30bn), and Cyprus (EUR7bn) stems from acquiring two servicers (Altamira in Elliott 17.75%

Spain and FPS in Greece). Bain Capital 10.86%

Investment case Valuation methodology

The acquisition of Gardant helped consolidate the Italian Our TP is based on a DCF with a 11.9% WACC and 1% terminal

market, boosted revenues from non-NPL sources, refreshed the growth for doValue (combined with coeo).

portfolio, strengthened the capital structure, and alleviated the When looking at multiples, doValue looks attractive, including

burden of refinancing the bonds. an EV/EBITDA of 4.5x for FY 2026E and 4.2x for FY 2027E, along

Following the Gardant acquisition, Elliott became doValue's with an FCF yield of c.25% (FY 2026E).

second-largest shareholder, bringing additional business. Risks to our rating

doValue also secured two key forward flow agreements (BAMI Higher non-recurring costs than expected due to an

and BPER), which are crucial in the challenging NPL market. unsuccessful integration of Gardant.

doValue's deal with coeo reshapes its growth profile, entering Expiration and non-renewal of Santander's forward flow

new geographies and a structurally growing vertical.