Pareto Oil & Gas: Trump signals renewed military escalation on Iran as Beijing trip begins-05/13/2026

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Pareto Oil & Gas: Trump signals renewed military escalation on Iran as Beijing trip begins-05/13/2026

are IPCOW&T Offshore 3,050630 13.8xn.m 101 %% 182 %% 0.72xn.a 53%3% 159%50% 187%90%

forecast to peak at 10.8 mbd in May as the Strait remains E&P Consensus overview PAS vs. Cons Total returns (USD)

effectively closed. Normal flow levels not expected to res until Mcap P/E (x) Tot. yield*

later in 2026. 2026 global crude/liquids production cut to 101.6 NorthEquinorSea (USDm)96,080 7.4x26E (%)7%26E EPS'26E(16)% EPS'27E(12)% (1)%1M YTD64% 71%1Y

mbd (-2.69 mbd m/m) while 2027 estimated up to 109.5 mbd (+40 Aker BP 23,310 11.9x 7% 7% 19% 5% 50% 75%

kbd m/m) as shut-ins unwind. UAE departed OPEC effective 1- VårAverageEnergiNorth Sea 12,740 8.2x9.2x 10%8 % (1)%7% 6%4% 6%3% 59%58% 94%80%

May, and consequently May STEO excludes UAE from OPEC Mcap P/E (x) Tot. yield* Cons. rev. L3M Total returns (USD)

totals and now sees OPEC spare capacity at 2.5 mbd in 2027, US majors (USDm) 26E (%) 26E EPS'26E EPS'27E 1M YTD 1Y

down 1.3 mbd m/m ExxonMobilChevron 624,350370,340 14.5x13.9x 6%7% 52%98% 21%29% (1)%(1)% 26%23% 42%36%

• Demand: 2026 global consumption revised to 104.15 mbd (-420 ConocoPhillips 143,600 13.0x 6% 82% 27% (3)% 28% 32%

kbd m/m). FY'26 demand growth now just +0.2 mbd y/y, down 0.4 Average US major 13.8x 6 % 77% 25% (2)% 26% 37%

mbd vs April STEO and down 1.0 mbd vs February, driven almost Mcap P/E (x) Tot. yield* Cons. rev. L3M Total returns (USD)

entirely by Asian demand destruction on Middle East supply EuropeanShell Majors 239,260(USDm) 8.8x26E (%)9%26E EPS'26E56% EPS'27E21% (7)%1M YTD17% 35%1Y

constraints. 2027 consumption 105.64 mbd (-520 kbd m/m) TotalEnergies 204,860 8.5x 6% 64% 22% 0% 43% 63%