Value without the trap? Initiating Outperform

研报英文原文证据摘录

Value without the trap? Initiating Outperform

Consumer | Food

May 15, 2026

The J. M. Smucker Co David Palmer John Quartarolo, CFA 212-497-0836 646-784-4638

SJM | $100.06 David.Palmer@evercoreisi.com john.quartarolo@evercoreisi.com

Outperform | Target Price/Base Case: $117.00 Elliott Simon, CFA James Donnelly

Initiating Coverage 212-497-0820 212-812-2904

Elliott.Simon@evercoreisi.com James.Donnelly@evercoreisi.com

Value without the trap? Initiating

Company Statistics

Outperform 52-Week Range $89.53 - $116.00

Base Case $117.00 We are initiating Smucker’s with an Outperform rating and $117

Upside/Downside 16.6% price target (17% upside). This target equals ~11x FY28e EPS and is

Market Capitalization (M) $10,660 below its 5-year average of 13x. Our target valuation represents a slight

Forward P/E 9.91 premium to the center store food peer average of 10x. We believe this

Dividend Yield 4.4% is justified given our outlook for HSD EPS growth over the next three

Short Interest 4.9% years—versus roughly flat EPS for peers. While our FY27e estimate of

$9.95 (+10% YoY) is below consensus ($10.06), it is still slightly above

investor expectations and reflects higher-than-expected growth

Earnings Summary spending.

2025 2026E 2027E

We estimate ~9% EPS CAGR (FY26–FY28), driven by multiple

Consensus EPS Q1 $2.44 $1.90A $2.21

Q2 $2.76 $2.10A $2.52 factors. These include: (1) Coffee segment profit recovery from lower

Q3 $2.61 $2.38A $2.71 green coffee costs (~5.5pp EPS contribution); (2) profit recovery in

Q4 $2.31 $2.65 $2.65 Sweet Baked Snacks from cost cutting (+0.5pp); (3) productivity

FY $10.12 $9.03 $9.97 improvements (+2pp); (4) lower interest expense (+1pp); and (5) share

EPS Q1 $2.44 $1.90A $2.20 repurchases beginning in FY28 (+0.5pp). Altogether, this implies a