KBC: Model update post Q1

研报英文原文证据摘录

KBC: Model update post Q1

RBC Europe Limited

Anke Reingen (Co-Head of Global Financials Research)

+44 20 7029 0784, anke.reingen@rbccm.com

Susana Cruz (Associate)

+44 20 7029 0392, susana.cruz@rbccm.com

Sherry Lin (Associate) UPDATE +44 20 7653 4002, sherry.lin@rbccm.com

May 12, 2026

KBC Group NV Sector Perform

BRU: KBC; EUR 116.10 MODEL Model update post Q1 Price Target EUR 123.00

Our view: The strong NII performance in NII did not translate into earnings Scenario Analysis* upgrades as our estimates were already above guidance and KBC did

not provide us with the confidence needed to move even further away. Downside Current Price Upside

Loan losses and costs moved higher but while within guidance, our Scenario Price Target Scenario

estimates appeared now slightly too optimistic. Our PT remains unchanged 48.00 116.10 123.00 140.00

at EUR123. 53% 12% 26%

*Implied Total Returns

Key points: Key Statistics

Outlook clouded: KBC delivered a strong start into the year in net interest SharesDividend:O/S (MM): 396.66.71 MarketYield: Cap (MM): 46,0415.8%

income (+2% QoQ ex acquisitions) mainly based on strong volume growth Tangible BVPS: 56.46 Avg. Daily Volume: 347,278

Float (MM): 250.0RESEARCH (loans and deposits +2%) and a higher commercial transformation result. Core shareholders own 40% of the outstanding shares

Given the current uncertain environment KBC did not update its guidance

although classifies NII guidance for 2026 of at least EUR6.725bn as ‘very RBC Estimates

conservative’ which at the low end implies a decline by 1% in the rest of FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

the year vs Q1 (ex negative one-offs). There are a lot of moving parts with EPS, Adj Diluted 8.89 10.41 11.53 12.71

volume growth (5% reiterated), continued benefits from the replication Prev. 10.45 11.62