KBC (1K) | Buy | Q2 preview: Strong increase in NII in Q2

研报英文原文证据摘录

KBC (1K) | Buy | Q2 preview: Strong increase in NII in Q2

#EarningsPreview #EstimatesRevision #Actionable

Release date: 10 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile BuyKBC

Belgium | Banks & Asset Managers Beta Profile: MCap: EUR47.2bn

Target Price: EUR141.10 (139.30) Change in TP: 1.3 % Bloomberg: KBC BB Reuters: KBC.BR

Current Price: EUR119.45 Change in Revenues: 0.6% 26E/0.1% 27E Free float 55.0%

Up/downside: 18.1% Change in Rep PBT: 1.5% 26E/none 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 79.1

YTD abs performance 7.4% Market data: 09 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 1.2% 26E/0.8% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 122.50/86.80

Q2 preview: Strong increase in NII in Q2 Price performance

Why this report?

KBC will report Q2 results on 6 August. We expect a strong increase in NII

(+4.5% QOQ), bringing the NII run rate close to EUR7bn. We expect

management to raise its FY NII forecast to >EUR6,925m, although we believe

it is still too early to adopt a more optimistic stance on the yield curve and

deposit pass-through rates, even if Belgian banks have so far continued to

behave rationally. We expect clean pre-provision profit to increase by 17%

QOQ in Q2. We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our target price to EUR 141.1.

Key findings

We expect NII at EUR1,747m in Q2, up 4.5% QOQ with 1) continuous tailwind from

the eurozone replicating portfolio (EUR+30m QOQ), 2) no material change in pass-

through rate in Q2, 3) higher number of days (EUR+9m QOQ), 4) EUR+28m QOQ

from inflation-linked bond, 5) reversal of the EUR-6m one off impact on NII in FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Total revenues 13,623 14,511 15,531

Hungary in Q1, 6) small residual effect from fidelity premium cut in Belgium in Pre-prov. profit 5,698 6,268 7,076

July 2025 and 7) EUR+7m appreciation effect of EURHUF in Q1 (+5% QOQ).