China strong, overseas reset continues

研报英文原文证据摘录

China strong, overseas reset continues

Macquarie Equity Research Pop Mart International

Key Risks to Investment Thesis Company Description

• Overexpansion may affect the consumer experience; Pop Mart International Group Ltd. engages in design,

changing consumer preferences; negative publicity (eg, development and sale of pop toys which includes figure, plush

scalpers taking advantage of excess demand) may hurt toys and other Intellectual Property (IP)-related products. It

brand image; stricter government regulation; supply- operates through two geographical segments: 1) Mainland

chain disruptions (ie, tariffs, quality issues); intensifying China and 2) Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Overseas in both

competition (from peers or counterfeits); intellectual online and offline channels.

property disputes.

Figure 1 - Pop Mart: Historical PER Figure 2 - Pop Mart: Revenue breakdown by IP

HK$ THE MONSTERS HIRONO CRYBABY HACIPUPU 600

35.0x Twinkle Twinkle Others SKULLPANDA DIMOO

30.0x 100%

400 25.0x

20.0x 300

200 13.0x 50%

0 0%

20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, May 2026 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, May 2026

Pop Mart International (9992 HK) CNY/(m) unless otherwise noted

Income Statement Dec FY 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E 2H/25A 1H/26E Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Revenue 37,120 42,819 45,950 50,897 23,244 19,664 Cash 13,775 25,596 37,841 52,415

Cost of Goods Sold 10,355 12,690 13,312 14,090 6,240 6,126 Receivables 921.2 1,152 1,465 1,730

Gross Profit 26,765 30,129 32,638 36,806 17,004 13,537 Inventories 5,473 5,536 6,195 6,490

EBITDA 17,416 19,417 21,673 24,988 11,117 8,374 Investments 9.7 20.0 24.4 28.0

Depreciation 398.2 578.3 703.9 821.9 220.6 289.1 Fixed Assets 1,418 1,825 2,106 2,269