China Consumer Cheap but unloved – stay selective while waiting for the earnings floor; top picks Nongfu, Anta, Guming

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Consumer Cheap but unloved – stay selective while waiting for the earnings floor; top picks Nongfu, Anta, Guming

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

29 May 2026

This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the

territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.

China Consumer

Cheap but unloved – stay selective while waiting for the

earnings floor; top picks Nongfu, Anta, Guming

The MSCI China Consumer weight (including autos and e-commerce) has Consumer

ACdeclined to 29% from 40% at end-2020 after a ~50% price drawdown. Many Jessie Xu

investors started 2026 looking for a clean “turn”, but momentum faded again after (852) 2800-8590

Chinese New Year. Consumer Staples and Discretionary now trade at ~16x and jessie.j.xu@jpmorgan.com

~13x forward P/E (around 1.5 STD below the 10-year average - Figure 3China/HKconsumerstaples-tradingat16xforwardP/E,1.5STDbelow10-yearmean). J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

Valuations are undeniably “cheap”: beverage, beer, catering, sportswear, beauty

Sylvia Hu

and jewelry sit in the bottom decile of their 10-year ranges (Figure 4CurentP/Emultiplevs10Yrange–Beverage,ber,condiments,catering,sportswear,beauty,jewelryandtextileOEMaretradinginthebotomdecileoftheirrespective10Yvaluationranges), with 5-7% (86-21) 6106-6284

dividend yields. However, EPS downgrades need to bottom before a durable re- sylvia.hu@jpmorgan.com

rating can take hold. We advise focusing on names with limited downside and SAC Registration Number: S1730526010001

earlier earnings stabilization.