CTS Eventim: 1Q preview & alternative data signals

研报英文原文证据摘录

CTS Eventim: 1Q preview & alternative data signals

Equity Research

15 May 2026

CTS Eventim

1Q preview & alternative data

signals

We preview 1Q26 (May 28th) and look at alternative data EVDG.DE/EVD GY OVERWEIGHT

signals. We expect a strong quarter in Live, with Ticketing Unchanged

impacted by contract loss. With valuation close to half its European Media UnchangedNEUTRAL

historical average, we see current trading as attractive but Price Target EUR 98.00

there are many moving parts. Maintain OW and €98 PT. Unchanged

Price (13-May-26) EUR 53.85

Potential Upside/Downside +82.0%

1Q26E – strong Live, muted Ticketing expected: 1Q is seasonally the smallest quarter for Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

CTS Eventim and we don't see it as a major catalyst. We forecast Ticketing revenue to grow 1.5%

to €217m (~5% like-for-like growth ex contract loss). At 41.5% margins, this implies €90m in Market Cap (EUR mn) 5169

adjusted EBITDA for Ticketing. For Live Entertainment, we forecast 25.0% revenue growth to Shares Outstanding (mn) 96.00

€365m at 6.5% margins – i.e. €24m in adjusted EBITDA. For the group, we expect €572m revenue Free Float (%) 61.10

at €114m adjusted EBITDA. 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.2

Dividend Yield (%) 2.67Many moving parts: Beyond 1Q, 2026E is set to be yet another year with many moving

Return on Equity TTM (%) 26.30parts. On the tailwind side: 1) integration effects of See Tickets and France Billet are now behind

Current BVPS (EUR) 11.27us, which should mechanically lift ticketing margins; 2) we are seeing the first batch of 2028 LA

Source: Bloomberg

Olympics onsale in 2026 (impact expected from 2Q26E). On the headwind side: 2026E will be

impacted by 1) Stage Entertainment loss and 2) an announced cost ("internal excellence")