Cleaning Up and Clearing Out - After This, Will We See NPAT Growth In FY27E?

研报英文原文证据摘录

Cleaning Up and Clearing Out - After This, Will We See NPAT Growth In FY27E?

nse to lower albumin volume driven by governmental policy changes has been vigorous,

- FY26Eand greater than the market expected. However, over the medium term, we believe pricing CSL revenue by product

HPV/IPL Other

IG (SC - Hizentra)pressure in IG and albumin will likely be corrected given the underpenetrated nature of both Vifor 1% 2% 10%

markets. 15%

IG (liquid - Privigen)

Seqirus

28%

13%

FY27E growth after normalizing for one-off payment? In February 2026, CSL entered into Specific IG

pdFVIII

2%a licensing agreement with Eli Lilly regarding clazakizumab. CSL stated it would receive a Specialty12% Albumin rFVIII FIXs &Etrana.0.5%

7% 0.6% 8%2HFY26E upfront payment of US$100m, which is included in FY26E guidance. We normalise .

Source: Jefferies estimates

for this payment when calculating FY27E NPAT growth.

CSL - CSL Behring Gross Profit Margin (%)

We update for lower IG and albumin growth rates in 2HFY26E+ – CSL's EPS declines by c7% NB: non-CC

57.8%in FY26E, and declines by 5% in FY27E. Major changes to our forecasts include: 1) 2HFY26E IG 60%58% 57.1% 56.1%

53.6% 53.0% 54.2%revenue growth rates – our CSL 2HFY26E IG revenue decline is 3% (from +4% growth) on pcp, 56%54%

52% 49.7% 49.9% 50.7% 50.7% 51.8%

implying FY26E CSL IG revenue decline of 3% (from +2% growth); 2) 2HFY26E albumin revenue 50%48%

growth rates – our CSL 2HFY26E albumin revenue decline is -10% (from +4% growth) on pcp, 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E

implying FY26E CSL albumin revenue decline of 19% (from 12% decline); and 3) Medium-term .Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates

IG and albumin growth – we assume CSL grows in line with historical market growth, namely