BRENNTAG : Calling the top?

研报英文原文证据摘录

BRENNTAG : Calling the top?

EQUITIES

CHEMICALS

BRENNTAG NEUTRALPRICE* EUR62.0  TARGET PRICE EUR55 (DOWNSIDE 11%) TARGET 6%PRICE EPS 5%26e EPS 8%27e

BRENNTAG ADR NEUTRALPRICE* USD14.7  TARGET PRICE USD12.9 (DOWNSIDE 12%) TARGET 8%PRICE EPS 5%26e EPS 8%27e

Calling the top?

Brenntag comments seemed to call the top for scarcity and prices; this could be premature13 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report Investor feedback since the call suggests we weren’t alone in our surprise at Brenntag’s view that

Production time: 19:18* (London time) peak scarcity is behind us, and that Asian prices have hit a ceiling. The initial move in chems prices

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities was driven by speculation of future scarcity, rather than scarcity itself – and the initial demand

David Symonds spike was probably driven by restocking rather than any long-term change in underlying demand/

BNP Paribas London Branch market share. But as the Middle East conflict drags on, inventories deplete and the oil curve grinds(+44) 203 430 8496

david.symonds@uk.bnpparibas.com higher, it seems premature to assume that scarcity and the rush for volumes is done, particularly if

end demand is “moving sideways” (Brenntag’s parlance) rather than outright falling. We note that

Wacker and Eastman have both announced fresh price increases today. It sounds like Asia is the

weakest demand region currently, which could justify the price ceiling comment – but a lull in

demand following the initial rush makes sense; this could quickly change as the conflict drags on.

Raising FY26 EBITDA by a further 5%; 10% ahead of consensus

We increase our FY26/27 EBITDA by 5% to €1.43bn/ €1.49bn, 10%/6% ahead of BBG consensus

and 6% ahead of the top end of FY26 guidance.