BRENNTAG : Excellent 2Q but guidance may disappoint

研报英文原文证据摘录

BRENNTAG : Excellent 2Q but guidance may disappoint

EQUITIES

CHEMICALS

BRENNTAG NEUTRALPRICE* EUR53.9  TARGET PRICE EUR55 (UPSIDE 2%)

BRENNTAG ADR NEUTRALPRICE* USD12.3  TARGET PRICE USD12.9 (UPSIDE 5%)

FLASH NOTE

Excellent 2Q but guidance may disappoint

22 JUNE 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 19:06* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

David Symonds BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8496 david.symonds@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

Brenntag became the first company in our coverage to pre-announce 2Q, with EBITDA of €450m 20% ahead of

consensus and 9% above our street-high estimate. FY guidance is raised to €1.25-1.4bn from €1.15-1.35bn previously,

leaving the midpoint in line with consensus of €1.316bn but implying a substantial fade in H2.

BNPP View:

We had been expecting a strong quarter based on volume and price impacts from the Iran conflict, and our €412m

street-high EBITDA estimate was 10% ahead of a consensus which has been very slow to react to a clear step change

in backdrop. However, even we were not high enough.

The main factor driving the shares tomorrow however is likely to be the update to guidance. The midpoint implies H2

5% lower YoY and 11% below consensus. The release mentions caution over demand in H2, which is prudent at this

stage, and guidance neatly brackets the current FY consensus with the implied miss only resulting from the fact that

2Q was a sizeable beat vs consensus. So it’s not clear whether the intention of the guidance is a downgrade in H2 or

if this is just reluctance to encourage analysts to raise FY numbers against a continually uncertain backdrop.

In terms of read across to IMCD and Azelis, we would expect a less dramatic step up, but still a considerable positive

effect.