SAVILLS (+) : 1Q26 update: a “marginally ahead” start reassures

研报英文原文证据摘录

SAVILLS (+) : 1Q26 update: a “marginally ahead” start reassures

Refinitiv

Investment case, valuation and risks

Savills (Outperform, Target Price GBP12.4)

Investment case

Savills is a global provider of property services ranging from residential and commercial

broking to consultancy and FM. The recent Eastdil Secured acquisition increases US

exposure and creates a global leader in high-margin property-related capital markets.

A 20-year organic revenue CAGR of 6% belies its cyclicality. Management's

commercial focus supports realisation of underlying margin expansion. At 9x 12m fwd

PE, we believe shares are discounting a recession. Outperform.

Valuation methodology

We value Savills on a target PE multiple of 14x, consistent with where Savills typically

traded mid-cycle, which we apply to our 12m fwd base case EPS, which includes Eastdil

from mid-2026.

Risks

To the upside:

Rapidly falling interest rates might stimulate more transaction business and cause a

material uplift to our estimates.

Savills may improve margins faster than targeted if market conditions improve.

If infrastructure and real estate funds receive inflows from private equity as a result of

the Mansion House Accord, there could be more demand for commercial real estate in

the UK, boosting transaction volumes.

To the downside:

Elevated energy prices might keep policy rates higher which might slow end market

activity.

Even though Savills' valuation is at deep discounts to history and peers, further de-rating

for Savills is not impossible or rather the valuation may not be able to re-rate as we

expect.

Savills may fail to improve margins as targeted if market conditions remain challenging.

Weaker transactional revenues may impact profitability and slow the pace at which