First Read: Savills Expectations for 2026 "remain unchanged" (Buy) Gauge

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First Read: Savills Expectations for 2026 "remain unchanged" (Buy) Gauge

2/26E 85.26 84.69

With the shares down ~16% since early March, the market appears to be discounting a 12/27E 84.14 99.72

near-term earnings slowdown linked to geopolitical uncertainties, potentially 12/28E 103.34 115.20

compounded by higher transactional exposure from the Eastdil acquisition. We think

Zachary Gauge

this update provides some reassurance on both fronts. First, US market strength

Analyst

continues to stand out, reinforcing our view—highlighted in our upgrade note—that zachary.gauge@ubs.com

Eastdil materially strengthens Savills’ positioning by diversifying earnings and adding +44-20-7901 5534

meaningful exposure to the world’s largest real estate capital market. Second, the

Charles Boissier, CFA

resilience in YTD activity is consistent with our expectation that investment activity

already well progressed at the onset of the conflict would largely complete, while charles.boissier@ubs.com

occupational markets remain broadly business-as-usual. While a prolonged conflict and +44-20-7568 4415

UK politics remain clear headwinds, we believe these risks are adequately captured in

Nadir Rahman

our assumptions, including a c.-5% revenue decline in 2H26. The shares are trading on Analyst

~10X forward EPS, and even with our more conservative assumptions for revenue in nadir.rahman@ubs.com

2H26, we see a credible path to low-teens EPS CAGR through 2028. This underpins our +44-20-7567 1750

view of a favourable risk/reward skew, with asymmetric upside should geopolitical

conditions stabilise.

SVS trades at a 20% discount to DDM-derived fair value

Our DDM estimates a t+1 fair value of future cash-flows of £1.7bn, which equates to a

target price of 1,040p