Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aditya Birla Lifestyle Brands Limited: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Aditya- BirlaAdityaLifestyleBirlaBrandsLifestyleLimited (AITT.NS)Brands Limited (AITT.NS)

Steady Business at Attractive Valuation

PRICE TARGET Rs163.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Residual income model, probability-weighted 25% bull, 60% base, 15% bear. The higher ▪ABLBL's core lifestyle brands business has

probability weight to our bull vs. bear case reflects ABLBL's strong revenue/earnings growth a strong portfolio of brands with an

potential led by accelerated pace of store additions and improving SSSG. Our key RI established track record of growth,

assumptions include a cost of equity of 12.4% (risk-free rate 7%, risk premium 6%, beta 0.9) profitability, and cash generation. The de-

and a terminal growth rate of 6%. merger of ABFRL ensures ABLBL's renewed

focus on growth and frees capital for the Rs149.70

latter to invest in expanding its retail

Consensus Price Target Distribution Rs120.00 Rs176.00 network.

MS PT

the younger brands (especiallySource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪Moreover,

Reebok) have the potential to generate

higher growth, raising overall growth.

▪Overall, we project an 11% revenue CAGR,

RISK REWARD CHART F2026-29e, with gradual improvement in

margins and return profile.

stock trades at 10x 12-month forward INR ▪The

EV/EBITDA, cheaper than peers, with

Rs241.00Rs241.00(+131.55%)Rs241.00(+131.55%)(+131.55%) opportunity for multiple expansion assuming

240 consistent execution.

Consensus Rating Distribution

Rs163.00Rs163.00(+56.61%)Rs163.00(+56.61%)(+56.61%) 70% Overweight

20% Equal-weight

Rs104.08Rs104.08Rs104.08 10% Underweight

MS Rating

60 Rs84.00Rs84.00(-19.29%)Rs84.00(-19.29%)(-19.29%) Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research