Australia Materials: Spot Base Consensus: 15 May 2026

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Australia Materials: Spot Base Consensus: 15 May 2026

Idea

May 15, 2026 06:49 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Spot Base Consensus: 15 May R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Australia Materials

Asia Pacific

Our weekly report compares spot-based valuation, cash flow, Industry View Attractive

and earnings metrics to current consensus and our base case Recent Research:

values for all stocks under our coverage. BHP Group Ltd: Rising data centre build favours

BHP's commodity mix – but there's plenty of

We compile the "Spot Base Consensus" report on a weekly basis to display spot

alpha too (13 May 2026)

price scenario outcomes. All other assumptions from our base case models are

Boss Energy Ltd: Updating Estimates and Price

unchanged. This provides context for current equity and commodity prices. The

Target (1 May 2026)

charts and tables below display the scenario outcomes.

Mineral Resources Limited: Updating Estimates

Methodology: We run spot commodity and currency prices through our models up (30 Apr 2026)

to CY32, then switch to our longer-term base case price assumptions detailed here – South32 Ltd: Hermosa: Higher capex somewhat

metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 2Q26: Two-Way Risks (8 Apr 2026). offset by longer life. A large overhang is

removed with modest impact expected. (29 Apr

Exhibit 1: Spot vs. base case vs. consensus EBITDA forecasts

2026)

50% Mineral Resources Limited: Strong 3QFY26

40% Production: Guide upgraded but Cons largely

there. Diesel impact higher than MSe/Cons. (29

30%

Apr 2026)

20% Whitehaven Coal Ltd: 3QFY26 Production:

10% Narrabri and Blackwater underperform. Guide

0% unchanged.