Key Currency Views The macro landscape turns more dollar-positive

研报英文原文证据摘录

Key Currency Views The macro landscape turns more dollar-positive

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

15 May 2026

Key Currency Views

The macro landscape turns more dollar-positive

• Long-carry, long-energy exporters vs importers remains high conviction Global FX Strategy

• ...with growth still resilient and inflation pressures keeping CBs cautious. Meera Chandan AC

(44-20) 7134-2924

• We’ve turned long-USD again following inflation surprises and signs of meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com

entrenched EUR weakness… J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• ...while USD still benefiting ts from 1) carry/ToT, 2) a more balanced Fed, Arindam Sandilya

3) firmer domestic data, and 4) renewed US equity strength. Conditions to (65) 6882-7759

arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com

be long USD now (low-grade US exceptionalism) differ from our tactical JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

bullish-USD stance in March (hedge).

Patrick R Locke

• We’ve pivoted to a bearish-EUR/USD forecast for the first time in a year. (1-212) 834-4254

2H’26 1.13-15 range (prior 1.20). Buy 3m EUR/USD put spread. patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Various supports are blunting the impact of the energy shock - but are not James Nelligan

evenly distributed globally. NorthAm most insulated; Eur vulnerable. (44-20) 3493-6829

• Governments, politics impacting FX (JPY-MoF, GBP-leadership contest). james.nelligan@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Trades: Buy 3m EUR/USD put spread. Take profit on CAD-funded short- Ben K Jarman

USD proxy (CAD vs AUD, NOK), rotate into 3m USD/CAD call spread (61-2) 9003-7982

• G10: EUR/USD medium term targets revised bearishly for first time in a ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

year on worsening EUR fundamentals.