FX Technical Update Dollar strength broadens from JPY to other majors, but we don’t think this goes far and expect the market to remain in its broader trading range

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FX Technical Update Dollar strength broadens from JPY to other majors, but we don’t think this goes far and expect the market to remain in its broader trading range

Jason Hunter AC (1-212) 270-0034 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A N

jason.x.hunter@jpmorgan.com FX Technical Update

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 15 May 2026

Look for the DXY Index rally to fade in the 99.50-100 area

The broad U.S. dollar rebound from the 97.50-98.00 DXY Index support zone is gaining traction as GBP and EUR weaken within

their ranges and join the already rallying USD/JPY move that got underway a couple of weeks ago. The DXY Index is quickly

approaching several important resistance levels that include the 99.49 March 61.8% retracement and early-April breakdown zone,

the 99.86 April 8 gap, and longer-term range resistance levels that surround 100 (Figure 1TheDXYIndexreboundfromthe97.50-98.0suportzoneaproachesthe9.49March61.8%retracementandearly-Aprilpaternbreakdownarea.Wesuspectthemovewilfadebetwenthatareaandmajorrangeresistancenear10.). We expect this current advance to

fade in that area and for the dollar to ultimately maintain its broader trading range. Additionally, energy markets are showing

some evidence of rally exhaustion. While the energy market’s trajectory will be geopolitically- and headline-driven, we suspect

any resolution on that front we see the dollar track a retracement to lower energy prices for a short-term period. We think this

could see the DXY Index revisit the 97.50-98 support zone, if not a potential break into the lower end of the broader trading range

and a test of 96-handle support into early-summer.

Figure 1: The DXY Index rebound from the 97.50-98.00 support zone approaches the 99.49 March 61.8% retracement and early-April pattern

breakdown area.