JPM Natural Gas and NGL Reservoir Analyzing 2026-27 Corporate Natural Gas Price Breakevens

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JPM Natural Gas and NGL Reservoir Analyzing 2026-27 Corporate Natural Gas Price Breakevens

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

15 May 2026

JPM Natural Gas and NGL

Reservoir

Analyzing 2026-27 Corporate Natural Gas Price

Breakevens

JPM View: In this week’s Reservoir, we review our updated 2026 and 2027 FCF Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ACbreak-evens for natural gas levered E&Ps in light of the continued volatility in Arun Jayaram

commodity prices. Our analysis excludes the impact of hedging gains and losses. (1-212) 622-8541

A caveat to these break-even calculations is that we have left our capex and arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

production estimates unchanged, though in a lower commodity price environment Zach Parham

we would likely see capex move lower through both activity reductions and cost (1-212) 622-5837

deflation. Following robust FCF generation across the group in 1Q driven by zach.parham@jpmorgan.com

elevated gas prices, with 1Q26 bid-week NYMEX settling at $4.96 per Mcf, we Pankaj Bhatter, CFA

estimate an average 2026 pre-dividend FCF break-even of ~$1.86 per Mcf for the (1-212) 622-3795

pankaj.bhatter@jpmchase.com

group, led by RRC (~$1.46 per Mcf), EQT (~$1.49 per Mcf), and GPOR (~$1.85

Jack Jerusalmiper Mcf). In 2027, the group’s pre-dividend FCF break-even moves to ~$2.50 per

(1-212) 622-6552

Mcf, led by EQT (~$2.28 per Mcf), GPOR (~$2.32 per Mcf), and AR (~$2.38 per jack.jerusalmi@jpmorgan.com

Mcf). On the other hand, NFG (~$3.05 per Mcf) and EXE (~$2.61 per Mcf) screen J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

at the higher-end of the peer group in 2027. We note NFG’s break-even is skewed

higher given spending on the regulated businesses. For the dividend paying

companies, the group’s 2026 post-dividend FCF break-even is ~$2.21 per Mcf, led