Copper Dashboard Miners enjoy the boom as the market prices in future scarcity - but current demand signals are underwhelming, and the physical market isn’t short

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Copper Dashboard Miners enjoy the boom as the market prices in future scarcity - but current demand signals are underwhelming, and the physical market isn’t short

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 May 2026

Copper Dashboard

Miners enjoy the boom as the market prices in future

scarcity - but current demand signals are

underwhelming, and the physical market isn’t short

Key takeaways: (1) Copper at $6.30/lb is priced for scarcity, but the physical Head of Australia Metals & Mining

ACmarket isn't short, it’s fragmented. The rally has been driven by Chinese buying, Lyndon Fagan

with SHFE inventory drawn down significantly and the import arb open frequently (61-2) 9003-8648

through 2026. However, global visible inventories remain elevated at ~1,000kt lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

(more than double 2025 levels), partly reflecting off-exchange material surfacing J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

onto exchanges amid tariff front-running. After peaking in March '26, Chinese de- Metals & Mining

stocking has driven a ~250kt global reduction over the past two months — but Dominic O'Kane

COMEX stocks are flat YTD and LME stocks have actually risen. Critically, over (44-20) 7742-6729

half of global exchange inventory now sits on COMEX, effectively locked behind dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

a potential tariff wall and inaccessible to ex-US consumers. (2) China apparent

demand fell 3% YoY in 1Q26, however an accumulation of inventory on the Patrick Jones

(44-20) 7742-5964

SHFE through March has now completely reversed. Global demand to Feb (pre- patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

ME conflict) was down 4% YoY, with RoW down 2%. Interestingly, the JPM J.P. Morgan Securities plc