HCAT: Topline Headwinds Likely to Extend into 2027; Cost Actions Help, but Product Reset Too Early to Underwrite; Maintain EW

研报英文原文证据摘录

HCAT: Topline Headwinds Likely to Extend into 2027; Cost Actions Help, but Product Reset Too Early to Underwrite; Maintain EW

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — May 11, 2026

Healthcare Technology

Health Catalyst, Inc.

Topline Headwinds Likely to Extend into 2027; Cost Actions Equal Weight

Help, but Product Reset Too Early to Underwrite; Maintain Price Target: $1.00

EW

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

Cost cuts and incremental bookings help soften the impact of revenue headwinds likely to EBITDA 29.8 32.4 -8.0%

persist through at least 2027. Shift toward AI-led intelligence is a promising hypothetical (MM) 2026

pivot on paper, but requires validation. Maintain EW. EBITDA 30.0 23.3 28.7%

(MM) 2027

Rev. (MM) 2026 262.5 267.1 -1.7%

1Q ahead. Rev / adj. EBITDA of $71MM / $9MM was +2MM / +$1MM vs consensus.

Rev. (MM) 2027 244.7 240.9 1.6%

2026 Guide Established Below Street. FY26 rev midpoint guided $262.5MM ($260MM-

$265MM) vs WFS / consensus $267MM / $279MM, with adj. EBITDA midpoint guided Ticker HCAT

$31.5MM ($30MM-$33MM) vs $32MM / $35MM. Upside/(Downside) to Target (27.5)%

Bookings. New metric reflecting both ARR and non-recurring revenue guided $22MM to Price (05/11/2026) $1.38

$26MM for 2026 (est. 3-6 month bookings-to-rev conversion). While 2027 also likely a 52 Week Range $0.96 - 4.74

negative growth year, + y/y growth could return by 4Q27. Market Cap (MM) $98

Enterprise Value (MM) $157

Product pivot. HCAT is repositioning from a data infrastructure provider (acknowledged Average Daily Value (MM) $1

as commoditized) to an AI intelligence layer. The moat asserted by management is Dividend Yield 0.0%

proprietary data linking interventions to outcomes by deploying AI agents across various

solutions (cost, clinical outcome, ambulatory, etc).