CY26 Guide Comes in Below Consensus; Reiterate Neutral Amidst Serious Attrition

研报英文原文证据摘录

CY26 Guide Comes in Below Consensus; Reiterate Neutral Amidst Serious Attrition

C O M PA N Y N O T E

M a y 1 2 , 2 0 2 6

Health Catalyst, Inc. (HCAT) Neutral

CONCLUSION PRICE: US$1.38

HCAT reported a 1Q26 revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat. CY26 guidance was reinstated TARGET: US$2.00

at levels that fell short of consensus estimates. Attrition is a problem. HCAT has been 6x CY27E adjusted EBITDA of $28.6M with

notified of $9.0M of Tech ARR attriting in CY26 and $3.5M in CY27. HCAT has identified ($42.9M) of net cash as of 1Q26 and an

another $52.0M of vulnerable Tech ARR; of which $20.0M is expected to churn in CY26 estimated 78.5M shares outstanding in 4Q27.

and $10.0M is expected to churn in CY27. HCAT expects to retain $22.0M of the $52.0M

Jessica Tassanvulnerable Tech ARR. We estimate that Technology revenue will decline every quarter Sr. Research Analyst, Piper Sandler & Co.

sequentially from $49.5M in 1Q26 to $43.1M in 4Q26. Pro Services revenue is also 415 616-1638, jessica.tassan@psc.com

expected to decline every quarter sequentially from what was $85.2M of annualized run-

rate revenue in 1Q26 to $55.0-65.0M of annualized run-rate revenue in 4Q26. We expect Changes Previous Current

Rating — NeutralCY27 will be another year of overall revenue contraction and we reiterate Neutral until

Price Tgt — US$2.00

HCAT can stem the churn and stabilize the business. FY26E Rev (mil) US$279.1 US$260.7

FY27E Rev (mil) US$277.3 US$232.2

• Reiterate Neutral, $2.00 PT. We reiterate our Neutral rating and maintain our $2.00 FY26E EPS US$0.07 US$(0.05)

PT based on an unchanged 6x multiple of EV/ CY27E adjusted EBITDA of $28.6M FY27E EPS US$0.10 US$(0.07)

(prior $37.7M). Our PT assumes ($42.9M) in net cash as of 1Q26 and 78.5M FDSO 52-Week High / Low US$4.74 / US$0.96

as of 4Q27.