PAA/PAGP: Post Q1 Update—Raising PT—Crude Guide Hiked—Further Upside If Macro Holds

研报英文原文证据摘录

PAA/PAGP: Post Q1 Update—Raising PT—Crude Guide Hiked—Further Upside If Macro Holds

Equity Research

Price Target Change — May 11, 2026

Midstream Energy

PAA/PAGP: Post Q1 Update—Raising PT—

Crude Guide Hiked—Further Upside If Macro

Holds

Our Call Michael Blum

We're raising our PT to $23/unit from $22/unit to reflect slightly higher EBITDA Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Michael.J.Blum@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5037

estimates. We maintain our Equal Weight rating as we believe PAA's current valuation

Praneeth Satishfairly reflects its modest growth outlook.

Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Praneeth.Satish@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8056

What’s Baked Into 2026 Guidance? PAA's revised 2026 guidance (midpoint now Ned Baramov, CFA

$2,710MM from $2,650MM) assumes flat Permian production, crude optimization Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

initiatives already contracted or largely secured, realized FERC tariff escalators, higher Ned.Baramov@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8021

spot and West Coast volumes, and NGL outperformance only through May divestiture Eric Shiu

timing. Guidance excludes any sustained macro-driven optimization uplift. Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Eric.Shiu@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5038

Potential Upside Drivers To Guidance. Management highlighted several potential upside Jack Farrell, CFA

drivers to guidance including: (1) sustained higher oil prices & optimization opportunities, Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Jack.L.Farrell@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8012

(2) a volume flush from oil behind pipe as gas constraints ease (see below), and (3)

incremental spot and term recontacting on oil pipes at higher rates.

PAA Estimates ~200–300 Mbpd Of Oil Behind Pipe In The Permian. Mgmt noted