PAA / PAGP

研报英文原文证据摘录

PAA / PAGP

Midstream & Natural Gas

Oil/Liquids Infrastructure - Market Weight

PAA / PAGP May 26, 2026

Changing the narrative

The Wolfe Byte

We update our model for Q1 results, refreshed 2026 guidance, the closing of the Canadian NGL sale, and recent

commentary from the EIC conference. The stock has outperformed peers by ~5% since earnings in early May, which

we think has been supported by an improving outlook.

The bear case on Plains has been a lack of growth...can that change? Plains has stood out in recent years as pursuing

growth through tuck-in M&A, whereas midstream peers have seen increased organic investment opportunities. A

slowdown in Permian crude growth has also weighed, but that could shift as mgmt. has noted 200+ mbd of Permian

oil production currently curtailed due to gas pipeline constraints. This sets up 2027 as a potential inflection year tied

to higher oil prices and easing of constraints. Also, mgmt. has recently highlighted increased organic growth potential

tied to a handful of projects across the U.S. and Canada, including a potential initial expansion on Cactus III, that could

boost results as soon as 2027.

Raising estimates - lots of moving pieces. We raise our 2027-28 EBITDA estimates to reflect 1) PLA benefits in 2027

given the disclosure of a low $62/bbl hedge price for 2026; 2) $300M of placeholder organic growth projects; 3) an

assumed modest $0.30/bbl expansion of Permian long-haul tariffs on the 600-700 mbd of PAA capacity under short-

term contracts; and 4) stronger Permian basin-level oil production growth of ~350 mbd in 2027. See estimates in Ex.

1. Note, our 2027E also bakes in an $80M YoY headwind from assumed short-term Iran war market volatility benefits

from 2026.