CSX: Bull Case Becomes Base Case

研报英文原文证据摘录

CSX: Bull Case Becomes Base Case

Equity Research

Company Update — May 11, 2026

Rail

CSX Corporation

Bull Case Becomes Base Case Overweight

Price Target: $50.00

Our Call Ticker CSX

Upside/(Downside) to Target 11.5%

Following material cost progress in Steve Angel's first full quarter as CEO we are revisiting

our productivity/benchmarking work. In short, performance to date suggests our previous Price (05/08/2026) $44.83

bull case is becoming the base case, pointing to a $60 stock. 52 Week Range $28.66 - 46.55

Market Cap (MM) $83,473

From Bull to Base Case – We previously highlighted a 3-year ~700 bp bull case OR Average Daily Value (MM) $567

opportunity for CSX yielding ~$2.80 in '28 EPS. With nearly 400 bps expected in year 1, Dividend Yield 1.2%

CSX is off to a solid start, and we believe this may be the base case. Productivity is well

underway, with little pricing benefit realized yet. Pricing likely accelerates in '27, adding to $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

the better costs pace. Given that, we are raising our Bull Case target to ~800 bps of OR EPS

(~500 bps cost, ~300 bps yield) and $3 of '28 EPS. 2026E 0.43 A 0.48 E 0.52 E 0.51 E 1.95 E

2027E 0.47 E 0.58 E 0.60 E 0.59 E 2.25 E

Year 1 Was Cost, Year 2 is Pricing - CSX is unlikely to see meaningful net yield growth 2028E 0.53 E 0.65 E 0.67 E 0.65 E 2.50 E

in '26, as mix and contract timing limit upside above rail inflation. That said, the setup Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

improves meaningfully in '27, as Angel becomes more directly involved in pricing. NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

Combined with a stronger truck market and a firmer industrial backdrop, pricing alone