Consumer Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Consumer Model Update

Consumer

Leisure - Market Weight

Consumer Model Update May 11, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

Following recent events across our consumer coverage, we are publishing updated models for the companies listed

below.

Additional details below...

COMPANY TICKER RATING PT (PRIOR) % UPSIDE

Harley-Davidson HOG OP $30 ($23) 17.5%

Malibu Boats MBUU OP $37 24.7%

Source: Wolfe Research

OP=Outperform, PP=Peer Perform, UP=Underperform, NR=Not Rated

Priced as of 05/11/26

Investment Conclusion

Harley (HOG) - Outperform

Earnings Summary: Harley's 1Q US retail sales accelerated to +16% (vs. +5.5% in 4Q and in-line with our checks)

and beat expectations as promotions and better execution take hold. Dealer inventories continue to move lower which

remains key for the long term health of the network. The company also provided an update to their long-term strategy

where they are now targeting +MSD unit growth and $350mm of HDMC EBITDA. This would represent a significant

change in fortunes at the company and most investors are looking for HOG to return to flat unit trends.

Estimate Changes: Our updated EPS estimates are $0.34 (was $0.30) and $1.82 (was $1.92) for F'26 and F'27

respectively. The lower F'27 EPS estimate is mainly driven by commentary on Harley financial services profit trajectory

through 2029.

Valuation and Target Price: We are raising our price target to $30 from $23 prior. Our price target implies a 16-17x

multiple on our calendar 2027 EPS estimate. Shares currently trade around 26x NTM EPS vs. the five-year average

of approximately 10x.

Click here for our HOG model.

Mailibu (MBUU) - Outperform

Earnings Summary: MBUU's F'3Q results beat expectations and management raised the full-year guide which was

aided by the acquisition of Saxdor.