China Financials: Further rationalization in loan growth with continued new household savings shifting to investments

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Financials: Further rationalization in loan growth with continued new household savings shifting to investments

Update

May 14, 2026 01:46 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MChina Financials | Asia Pacific Richard Xu, CFA

Equity Analyst

Further rationalization in loan Richard.Xu@morganstanley.comBeryl Yang +852 2848-6729

Research Associate

Beryl.Yang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-2224

growth with continued new Chiyao Huang

Chiyao.Huang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4624

household savings shifting to Chenqian Liu

Chenqian.Liu@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0359

investments

China Financials

Asia Pacific

Key Takeaways Industry View Attractive

Related reports: TSF growth moderated 0.1ppt in April, to 7.8% yoy, within which RMB loan

China Financials: Moderating TSF enough to growth further slowed to 5.6% yoy.

support business activities rebound (13 Apr

Government bonds and corporate bonds were the main support for April TSF

2026)

growth, up 15.6% and 8.3% yoy, respectively.

China Financials: 2026 Outlook: Gradually back

RMB loans declined Rmb401bn in April 2026 (vs. the Rmb88bn increase last to a positive loop (11 Jan 2026)

year), which signals more rational loan growth besides seasonality after quarter-

end.

Except for bills, all types of loans declined in April, with drags from long-term

household loans and medium- to long-term corporate loans.

Household deposit growth slowed to 7.9% yoy, with a shift in new savings

towards other products, which is also evidenced in strong non-FI deposit growth.

RMB loans growth further moderated in April after 1Q26 despite some support

from bills: Continued retail risk digestion and some slowdown in corporate loan

growth after a strong 1Q26 weighed on April loan growth. Notably, both short-term