United Tractors Tbk PT: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

United Tractors Tbk PT: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – United Tractors Tbk PT (UNTR.JK)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Heavy Equipment Sales Volume

4,515.0 4,153.2 4,326.8 4,508.0

(units)

Mining Contracting Overburden

1,097.9 945.1 1,086.2 1,107.9

Removal (mn bcm)

Coal Concession Production (mnt) 14.3 12.1 12.7 12.7

Gold Production (k' Oz) 216.0 82.0 120.0 200.0

Newcastle Coal Price (US$/t) 90.0 110.0 85.0 65.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Gold production and prices RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Coal prices and alternative fuel prices Gold price strength continues into 2027 and 15.3 Indonesian coal production, strip ratio, and 2028 ROE

overburden removal (byproduct of mining) Higher Indonesian domestic coal production as (%) 8.6 16.9

growth electricity demand in Asia rises 13.4

Heavy equipment sales for mining, construction, Stronger heavy equipment sales and market

agriculture, and forestry in Indonesia share gains 4,203

EPS

Higher dividends 2,684 5,072

(Rp)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Inorganic growth 4,016

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

10-20% Japan Faster-than-expected gold and coal price Sales / 125,093

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland declines, driving earnings downgrades Revenue 104,515 140,690 80-90%

China and India Significant decline in equipment sales (Rp, bn) 121,576

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

22,015

View explanation of regional hierarchies here EBITDA Inst. Owners, % Active 55.9% 21,196 37,883

(Rp, bn)

30,053MS ALPHA MODELS Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

1/5 3 Month Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

MOST Horizon Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored