European Metals & Mining Tracker: Absolute Stretch, Relative Balance

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European Metals & Mining Tracker: Absolute Stretch, Relative Balance

Idea

May 14, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

Absolute Stretch, Relative Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Balance Adahna Ekoku

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Cyclical highs argue for stock selectivity Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

Exhibit 1: While the EuroStoxx Basic Resources Index (SXPP) has re-rated Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

substantially in absolute terms, its valuation relative to the broader market is RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

closer to its historical average level Brian Morgan

3.0x 1.7x Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

SXPP Absolute P/B (LHS) SXPP Relative P/B vs SXXP (RHS)

1.5x Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

2.5x Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Post-GFC China Stimulus 1.3x Commodities Strategist

Post-COVID Commodity Upcycle Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

2.0x Ben Kelson 1.1x

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

0.9x

1.5x

Mining 101

0.7x Mining & Steel Equities

1.0x Mining Sector Valuation Long Term

0.5x

Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

0.5x 0.3x Commodity Price Signals

Commodity Price Forecast 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg

Pricing an upcycle. The STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources Index (SXPP) is up

~28% YtD and ~24% from the post‑conflict trough, lifting absolute P/B to ~1.8x.

This level is consistent with prior cyclical peaks, including the 2010-11 China stimulus