Welltower Inc.: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Welltower Inc.: Risk Reward Update

owth: Positive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 13

May 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $280.00 BASE CASE $215.00 BEAR CASE $150.00

~38x Bull Case '27e FFO of $7.40 ~30.5x '27e FFO of $7.09 ~22x Bear Case '27e FFO of $6.82

2026 occupancy surpasses '19. Occupancy gains continue to drive double- Demand for Senior Housing product isn't as

Fundamentals recover faster than digit SS-NOI growth. The company's ss- strong as anticipated, and WELL's multiple

anticipated and supply remains limited. occupancy improved to ~89% through year- falls to 22x. Occ. improvements stagnate

SHOP ss-occupancy exceeds 94% in '26e and end '25, surpassing '19a levels. WELL with minimal growth in '26e/'27e as demand

96% in '27e. WELL's acquisition volume and continues to reap the benefits from plateaus and new supply accelerates.

external growth are much higher than acquiring SHOP assets at low costs. We Sustained levels of inflation lead to

expected. Intrinsic value implied by DFC model portfolio SS-NOI growth of ~15%/9% increases in opex in the SHOP portfolio.

analysis is supportive, suggesting ~$280 in '26e/'27e. WELL's 22x bear multiple is well below the

value, using 7% cost of equity (tighter than current NTM multiple, but above the 10-year